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Sluggish bilges Ministry of finance of Central Bank of Russia of risk extremely
From;    Author:Stand originally

Before half month, general Beijing asks the inflation this year is led whether control is when 10% less than, russian economy progress and husband of trade minister Glenn reply: "We endeavor! "We endeavor!!


But spent a week only, economic progress and trade department (the hair that is equivalent to China roughly changes appoint add Department of Commerce) this year the growth rate of GDP criterion by 6.5% attune low arrived 5.6% , go up rate criterion by " assure " will be in 10% above.


On the century happens in Euramerican country seventies, make Keynesia academic go bankrupt " sluggish bilges " phenomenon, making the choice that Russia economy is facing face difficult choice: Increase investment to grow in order to promote economy? Still pass inflation of keep within limits of control money supply?


Economic slowdown


New the economy that forecast is added fast let politicians be 2003 -- 2013 " break up one time " the task and anxious, but major person does not feel what differ by economic increase rate and cause however any distinction.


Because Russia is existing " special " fortune allocation means: The wealthy person of 10% is controlling the GDP of 50% above, and in hand of 50% ordinary peoples be less than 10% however. According to the estimation of world bank, in world big country, the coefficient of difference of the rich and the poor of Russia is next to China.


Because income allocates in the disequilibrium in the people, according to certain pessimism forecast, russian economy increase rate will drop to 4% .


The reason that Glenn husband is willing to put economic growth delay more however is accusing at " the slow trends that oil extracts and exports " . The data makes clear, before this year 5 months, oil exploitation and export volume reduced 3 percent, the investment rate of this industry also is compared last year rein in of the corresponding period 1/3.


And oil natural resources is finite after all, the limit cost of exploitation will be bigger and bigger, sooner or later one day, high oil cost can inflict heavy losses on Russia pulls the economic pattern that uses growth with oil exit.


Inflation is quickened


Oil also can offer reason for the inflation of Russia: Oil price is reduced, "Oil dollar " decrease, finance income decreases, cause deficit sex inflation; Oil price rises, "Oil dollar " grow in quantity, its amount exceeded the digestive amount of real economy, foreign currency occupies a paragraph to increase, the supply increase of ruble, cause monetary sex inflation; Come from these two kinds of explanations at the Central Bank and expert of Ministry of finance respectively, make original by the accepted economy that it is Russia the oil of the first hero, become inflationary culprit unexpectedly.


This year 1-4 month, the inflationary rate of Russia already rose to 6.5% , was last year 1.4 times of the corresponding period. Nevertheless more political circles letting Russia and academia are anxious, it is the individual inflation level in reality.
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