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Beautiful couplet store curule say global deposit is superfluous the beauty that
From;    Author:Stand originally

Come day after day, new York collects the interest good news of city to make clear, global investor is right of the dollar " faithful degree " how much to reduce, a few countries undertake decreasing holding to dollar assets also is short-term action nevertheless. The analysis says, in future 12 to 18 months in, show gradually as risk of rising market state bond, investor will turn again to the interest of dollar assets thick.


A report that published March according to American Ministry of finance, the fund that foreign investor bought American stock, debenture and treasury to wait January this year is 91.5 billion dollar, far outclass the 60.7 billion dollar last year December, for the history the 2nd tall record. Come from abroad and private investor for the most part among them.


And the statistical figure that American Department of Commerce announced on March 16 shows, because crude oil and other goods import the forehead to increase,wait for a reason, 2004 American balance of payments often project adverse balance of trade is as high as 665.9 billion dollar, the record of 530.7 billion dollar that achieves than 2003 is tall 25.5% , for the history top level. After this one report is announced, the dollar falls situation aggravate. Because this ever had analytic personage to be anxious, the United States more and more capital of support foreign country " blood transfusion " will balance oneself often project deficit and budget deficit, once overseas investor is fond of the asset that corner marks a price with the dollar no longer, and undersell already some dollar assets, the dollar collects valence may " diving " .


Nevertheless, a few beautiful couplet store curule not so think. They think the United States often because Bush's president executes what the policy that reduce tax and consumer taste to importer to love,the amplification of project deficit is not, and basically depend on what what Ben Bainake weighs laying in committee member like American federal " global deposit is superfluous " . Grow slow developed country in economy not only, be like Japan and Germany, and in burgeoning country, be like China and India, have the problem with surplus deposit.


This viewpoint thinks, global deposit is superfluous depress American interest rate, make federally budget deficit expands, consumer is willing to spend more money. If this kind of view holds water, will exit to foreign capital so cause a dollar thereby " collapse dish " be anxious to be enlarged apparently, of likelihood happening is the dollar depreciates gradually. Came 2000 2004 end, dollar exchange rate dropped relative to euro 25% , drop to pound 19% , to adding yuan drop 16% , drop to yen 4% .


Global deposit is superfluous the strongest evidence comes from population rapid aged Japan and Europe. The worker of these areas must increase emeritus reserve before retire in case provide for the aged, investment is the best method that will not increase income, but the problem that they face is economy the domestic lack of slow growth invests an opportunity. Accordingly, they must deliver fund to abroad, include the United States among them. The economy that st. louis federal lays in Er of bank president general to think this reachs stimulative United States to the money market of prosperous United States went to main effect since development. After all, aged to facing population likewise the United States of the problem, rate of its emeritus population growth is slower than Japan and Europe.
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